Every winter, news stories pop up citing the Farmers' Almanac and its predictions for the cold, snowy season ahead. The Almanac foresaw a particularly horrendous winter for the Northeast in 2013-14. And what do you know? Early January in New York City has been in the negative digits and teens, and the city has already been pounded by at least one major snowstorm.
One of the Almanac's most popular predictions is still waiting to be proven: that this year's outdoor Super Bowl XLVIII in the original Almanac's home state of New Jersey will be a windy and stormy mess of rain, sleet, and snow. Halftime entertainer Bruno Mars must be shaking in his boots.
It begs the question: How can a 196-year-old publication be so accurate about seemingly impossible-to-predict events? And why hasn't it put every local weatherman out of a job?
The Farmers' Almanac, first published in 1818 in New Jersey, is edited currently by Peter Geiger, who inherited the role from his father. "When I was 7 years old, my father said to me, ‘Hey, you really want to be the Almanac editor because no editor dies under the age of 86.' My dad died at 83, but it sounded good at the time," quips Geiger, tongue firmly in cheek.
His company, based out of Lewiston, Maine, employs a staff that includes chief weather prognosticator Caleb Weatherbee--a pseudonym, sadly. Think of Weatherbee as a professional gambler of the environmental world, but with a much higher rate of accuracy (about 80 percent, per Geiger). The Almanac also publishes numerous "calendars" that list favorable days to go fishing, mow the lawn, and dig holes, among other activities. It also includes practical advice about cooking, gardening, and how to "live a good life," as Geiger puts it.
Back in the 19th century, almanacs were founded for--you guessed it--farmers, who needed to know how well their crops would fare in the upcoming growing seasons and how to prepare for particularly harsh winters. It's unlikely, however, that its early authors knew how famous it would become for the modern era. These days, theAlmanac is best known as an oracle for weather predictions, all but foreshadowing major snowstorms and cold snaps across the country year after year.
You have the right to be skeptical about the book's many predictions; if it's only 80 percent accurate, what about the 20 percent of the time when it's wrong? "There's no way of fact-checking [Weatherbee's] predictions," explains Geiger. "You don't know his predictions until the weather occurs, and we do it 2 years in advance."
Now, the worst possible scenario a writer can provide for his editor is zero plausibility for the facts he has laid out in a story. But that's not the case, argues Geiger. The Almanac's original editor, David Young--a 19th century mathematician, astronomer, and thinker--"...came up with a mathematical formula that gets applied to sunspot activity, planetary positions, and the effect the moon has on the earth," Geiger says. "All these components have allowed Young and his seven successors to predict the weather."
Let's just say that everything above makes perfect sense to you, and you've quickly become a steadfast believer in the Almanac's wisdom. Now you can apply a lot of the book's data to your own life, and it can help guide your seasonal well-being, health, and mental state. Here's how the Almanac's predictions--combined with actual science and practicality--can help you better prepare for the long, cold winter ahead.
1. Buy Better Winter Gear
Obviously, if the Almanac predicts a temperate winter--as it has in previous years--the need for buying new, heavier cold-weather clothing decreases exponentially. But for a particularly freezing season like 2014's, there are a few specific dates you'll really need to bundle up, according to the book's "Best Days": February 5-7 and March 5-6.
2. Fend off the Flu
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the 2013-14 flu season kicks off this month and drags on until as late as May. So your immune system has its work cut out for it. And although the Almanac doesn't specifically predict influenza outbreaks or what vile viral strains will be on tap for 2014, you can heed its advice about particularly cold and dry days, which are when flu viruses spread more widely, according to the Harvard Health Letter. Still, the most effective way to fight off the flu is through the old jab in the arm, say researchers from Seattle's Biomedical Research Institute. (And yes, it's safe. Check out these 4 flu shot myths--debunked!)
3. Quit Smoking--and Stay Warmer
Since it's going to be dangerously cold outside across gigantic swaths of the country soon, you should plan on staying inside on subzero days. But some people have to venture outdoors regardless of conditions: smokers. Want to stay warm and kick a bad habit? The Almanac's "Best Days" calendar notes 7 days in January--17-21, 26-27--and 9 in February--14-17, 22-24, 27-28--on which it would be most favorable to attempt putting the cigs down. (Of course this would be a good idea on any day. Here are 5 ways to quit smoking, stat.)
4. Lift Your Mood
It's true: Winter weather can adversely affect your mental state. Seasonal Affective Disorder (S.A.D.) is an actual type of depression brought on by specific seasonal time periods--particularly the winter months. Given that the Almanac seems to be spot on about this winter so far, you should do everything you can to fight off SAD. Start by spending a few more minutes under the sun: Vitamin D, which your body draws from sun exposure, is believed to play a role in fighting off depression. You can also eat more salmon, tuna, and vitamin D-fortified milk.
5. Protect Your Ticker
The Chicago Tribune reported on January 6 that four men died over a single weekend while shoveling snow. While this is an extreme situation, researchers at the University of Virginia Medical Center found that people suffering from heart-related conditions could be at a higher risk doing strenuous activities like shoveling the white stuff. So if the Almanac says there's a good chance your city is going to get buried in snow on a given day, take it easy on the driveway--or have a buddy to do the heavy lifting.
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