With a new football season upon us, the time is rife for making friendly wagers on the outcomes of games. If you plan on plunking down dough this weekend—or just badly want bragging rights—know this: NFL bookmakers over-estimate point totals the most during week 1, says recent research from Ohio University.
While betting the over/under on the total number of points scored by both teams combined is basically a 50-50 proposition during weeks 2 through 17, the “under” bet was a winner roughly 60 percent of the time during the first game of the regular season from 2000 to 2010. Your odds of winning if you bet the “under” are roughly 14 percent higher than an “over” wager based on the 10-year figures, the study shows.
Why? Gamblers expect offenses to perform just as well during the first week of the season as they did the previous year, explains study coauthor Andrew Fodor, Ph.D. But because offense requires more teamwork and coordination than defense in order to be successful, your favorite team’s O (and your expectations) usually need a week of regular season action to recalibrate. Bookies either don’t take this into account—or they do, but recognize that you won’t, Fodor says.
Of course, there’s no guarantee the trend will continue this season, the study authors stress. And when you gamble, there’s always a strong chance you’ll lose. But if the 10-year data holds true, you’re better off betting the under this Sunday. Hope you enjoy that firm handshake from your buddy when you win.
Want more insider football info that’ll help you score big? Here’s how to dominate your fantasy league this season.
If you liked this story, you’ll love these:
Powered by WPeMatico
No comments:
Post a Comment